Environmental Bowtie Risk Analysis

Marine Bowtie Risk Analysis

Environmental risk assessment using the bowtie method — linking human activities to ecological consequences.

Activities

Pressures

Controls

Consequences

Getting Started

📁 Upload Data

Load your own bowtie dataset from Excel or CSV.

🎲 Generate Sample

Choose a built-in scenario and load it instantly.

Scenario

🧭 Guided Workflow

Build a bowtie step-by-step with the wizard.

Upload Bowtie Data

Choose Excel or CSV file

Browse...

⚙️ Risk Matrix Configuration

Matrix size:

Risk score:

Risk view:

Risk Matrix

Data Table

Export Data

Download Bowtie (HTML)Download Data (CSV)Download Data (XLSX)

Scientific Validation

📚 Knowledge Base Statistics

🧠 Network Setup

Central Problem

CPT Source

Expert priors Evidence-weighted (knowledge base)

Evidence-weighted fits link strengths from the scientific knowledge base (confidence, control effectiveness, reversibility) where available; links without a literature entry use a neutral weight (0.5), and your Likelihood/Severity ratings set the root-node priors. Dense bow-ties, where exact inference would be too costly, are computed by Monte Carlo sampling and labelled as such.

🎯 Scenario Presets

🔍 Evidence (Node States)

🎯 Sensitivity & Scenario

Analysis target (sensitivity)

Highlight Markov blanket of:

These nodes directly influence the selected node; once their states are known, the rest of the network adds nothing more about it.

⬇ Download Results

⬇ Download Sensitivity (CSV)

⬇ Download Importance (CSV)

DBN Forecast Controls

Time slices

Persistence

Drift

Temporal forecast uses a 2-slice Dynamic Bayesian Network (2-TBN). Drift is a modelling assumption, not an empirical prediction — results are scenario projections only.

Find Related Terms

Enter a term:

Term type:

Min relevance:

Results

Auto-Generate Bowtie

Starting Activity:

Central Problem (optional):

Max pressures:

Max consequences:

Generated Bowtie Preview

Train & Score

Train the Random Forest on current data, then score all pathway links.

Link Confidence Scores

Feature Importance (ML Scorer)

Which n-grams drive the ML link scorer's decisions.

Suggestion Feedback Stats

Feedback Log (Admin)

🔍 Vocabulary Browser

Vocabulary Type

📊 KB Statistics

➕ Custom Terms

Term

Type

Description (optional)

🔗 Link Review & Risk Editing

Select Pathway:

Likelihood:

Severity:

📋 All Pathways

📄 Report Generation

Central Problem:

Include Sections:

Summary Table Risk Matrix BowTie Diagram Bayesian Results

⬇ HTML

⬇ PDF

⬇ Word

⬇ PNG

Preview

Help topics

Topic

📊 Feedback Dashboard

Status

Type

AI suggestion responses are in AI Analysis › AI Feedback.

Overview
Changelog